Starmer's Backers Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Return
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.
Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process
Multiple members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several sources also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.
